has finally arrived, and it’s happening at the perfect time for the .
On a team flush with high-end skaters who have the ability to put up big numbers, he’s one of the players shining the brightest. Any shortcomings that the 22-year-old showed early in his still-young career are looking further and further away as the Rangers are two victories away from a Stanley Cup Final berth. He looks like a potential star.
“I feel like this series, he’s really turning it up,” Rangers defenseman said. “To see him pull off some of the things he’s pulling off, it’s surprising but not. He’s a special talent. I love the confidence he has right now, the way he’s going to the net. I hope he keeps that going.”
In 14 games this postseason, Lafrenière has 13 points, including seven goals, none bigger and better than his instantly iconic second tally in Game 3 against the in the Eastern Conference finalformer vancouver canucks coaches. With the game tied late in the second period, he carried the puck into the offensive zone with purpose.
“I had speed coming in and just tried to make a move,” he said.
The Rangers winger toe-dragged around , making him look like someone he would’ve gone against in junior. Then, cutting in front of the net, he withstood contact from and backhanded a puck past .
The goal was Lafrenière’s sixth of the playoffs, three times as many as he had across 27 games in his first two postseasons. It was reminiscent of the type of game-breaking play he routinely made in Rimouski, where he averaged more than two points per game in his last year of junior hockey. He added his seventh goal in Game 4 — all at five-on-five, second among all players in the playoffs — by finishing a backdoor pass from . He also deked earlier in the game on a power-play zone entry, then hit the crossbar with his shot.
At long last, Lafrenière looks like the player the Rangers expected when they drafted him No. 1 overall in 2020.
It’s been a long time coming for Lafrenière, unusually so for a player of his draft pedigree.
Some top picks are overnight sensations. Others might need a year or two to find their path toward stardom. Either way, they usually get to where they were expected to, as an impact player.
It is rare, however, for a No. 1 pick to struggle to create offense three years into his career the way Lafrenière did. Over the last 30 years, there have been only two instances in which a No. 1 pick failed to score at even a 0.5 points-per-game pace in his first three seasons: Patrik Stefan and Lafrenière.
That arbitrary distinction isn’t exactly fair to Lafrenière — his usage and role was atypical compared to other top picks, since he was on a Rangers team trying to contend — but it does speak to the “bust” criticisms he faced going into Year 4. To that point, Lafrenière had yet to establish himself as a consistent top-six talent, having gone three straight seasons with a below-average Net Rating.
The 2023-24 season was crucial to the type of player Lafrenière could still become, and he delivered. His personal trainer, Stéphane Dubé, said “he turned a corner” in his summer training, and that showed on the ice. Playing primarily on a line with superstar wing and standout center , he had a career-high 28 goals and 57 points, all without top power-play ice time. All but two of his goals came at even strength.
“It was really fun watching him play during the entire season, to see how he really improved,” Panarin recently said through an interpreter. “It’s fun to play on the same line with him.”
He finished the regular season with an Offensive Rating of plus-6.6 and a Net Rating of plus-3.9, both career-highs.kevin shattenkirk boston bruins
Lafrenière had 11 goals and 21 points in 22 regular-season games in March and April, for paces of 41 goals and 78 points over 82 games. He still had to answer, though, as to whether he could translate his strong play into postseason production against harder competition. He had zero points in last season’s seven-game first-round loss to the . There was also the question of how much he was benefitting from playing with two star players, particularly Panarin, who was on the fringes of the Hart Trophy conversation.
There was reason to believe, though, with a look at underlying numbers.
Based on data tracked by Corey Sznajder for his All Three Zones project, Lafrenière made massive strides in several key areas compared to the past two seasons. He was more successful at getting pucks out and getting pucks in — both with control. He was more dangerous in-zone at creating high-danger chances for himself and his teammates. And he was more lethal off the rush, too.
Those last two facets are perhaps the most eye-opening.
In-zone, Lafrenière has gone from earning 5.7 chance contributions (scoring chances plus scoring chance assists) per 60 in 2021-22 to 8.4 in 2022-23 and 11.4 this season, with a high percentage of those chances being high-danger. That ranked just outside the league’s top 20 forwards.
Lafrenière was the team’s most prolific zone-entry option this season. The chances he created off of those entries were even more important. He earned 15 controlled entries per 60 and created a scoring chance on 7.1 on those. That’s a high ratio at an impressive volume, making Lafrenière one of the best players off the rush this season. According to Sznajder’s data, the only players who definitively created more chance off entries were and .
That’s exactly what has manifested in the playoffs, where Lafrenière has transcended to a higher plane, leaving very little doubt regarding his future place in this league as a star or at least top-line-level player.
“With the development, with the maturity and now (with) an opportunity to get out there with a guy like Trocheck or Panarin, it’s really starting to take off for him,” coach Peter Laviolette said. “With that comes confidence.”
With Panarin being guarded more heavily in the playoffs, Lafrenière has shown he can take charge as the driver of his line, all while his opponent quality has increased. At five-on-five, he’s the only non-Oiler with double-digit points in these playoffs. In terms of on-ice impact, Lafrenière has been on the ice for 3.9 goals-per-60, which leads all Rangers by a wide margin, netting him a 59 percent goal rate. By expected goals, his 55 percent rate is narrowly second to only Kaapo Kakko and is nearly four percentage points above the next best Ranger, his linemate Panarin.
All that has been good for an Offensive Rating of plus-2.7 and a Net Rating of plus-3.4 over 14 games. Translated to 82 games, that equates to plus-15.8 and plus-19.9, respectively. For context, that’s on par with what’s expected from somebody like Sebastian Aho or calgary flames careers. It’s a massive jump from his already impressive breakout during the regular season.
That Lafrenière is doing all of his damage at five-on-five is what makes all of this even more impressive. Every other player in the playoffs with similar or better numbers to Lafrenière’s has had the opportunity to pad their stats further on the top power-play unit. Of the players to win at least one round, Lafrenière’s Offensive Rating per 82 ranks 13th. The 12 players above him all get at least 65 percent of their team’s power play time (and 79 percent on average). Lafrenière gets 26 percent. The average Offensive Rating for forwards earning between 20 to 30 percent of their team’s power-play time is closer to plus-2.
Lafrenière is an outlier. No one is outperforming their power-play usage more than he is.
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In the immediate future, Lafrenière’s play is massive for the Rangers. They are two wins from reaching their first Stanley Cup Final since 2014, and Lafrenière is a primary reason why, especially with , and Panarin struggling to score goals against Florida.
Then there’s the wider lens view. He looks like he could be a foundational player for years to come, someone who can help keep New York’s contention window open as other top-line forwards get older.
Lafrenière stepping up in such a massive way is also a major reason why The Model has wrongly underestimated the Rangers, despite their Presidents’ Trophy win in the regular season. New York entered the playoffs a distant fifth in Stanley Cup odds. The Rangers were relatively heavy underdogs — both according to The Model and sportsbook betting lines — in the second round against and in the third round against Florida. By beating the Hurricanes and splitting with the Panthers through four games, the Rangers have shown they firmly belong in the tier of true contenders.
Lafrenière is a big reason why. He turns the Rangers’ big four forwards into a Big Five, something that’s hard to beat. His projection already was far too conservative for the player he showed himself to be during the season — a “better safe than sorry” bet by The Model that, in this instance, is proving to be incorrect.
Once a player figures out the game, there’s usually no looking back. It’s taken an unusually long time for Lafrenière to get there, but it was absolutely worth the wait for New York. If he keeps it up, he could be a main reason New York ends another wait, too.
(Data via Evolving Hockey and All Three Zones)
(Photo of Alexis Lafrenière: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
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